Chongqing Beer (600132) Commentary Report: Non-recurring profit and loss drove significant growth in 19-year results
I. Overview of the event The company issued an announcement of pre-increasing performance. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies for the year 2019 will be 60,597.420,000-68,677.08 million yuan, an increase of 50% -70% each year. Second, the analysis and judgment of the increase in non-recurring profit and loss led to a significant increase in the report size of the report, the company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 60,597.420,000 yuan?68,677.08 thousand yuan, one year + 50%?+ 70%, equivalent to 19Q4 net profit attributable to mother 1209.750,000 yuan?9289.420,000 yuan, ten years -37.42%?+ 380.53%; it is expected that the non-net profit deduction of 39,280 will be realized gradually in 19 years.530,000 yuan?47,360.190,000 yuan for the whole year + 11%?+ 34%, equivalent to 19Q4 to achieve deduction of non-net profit -1027.920,000 yuan?+ 7051.740,000 yuan, -18 in the same period in 18 years.270,000 yuan.There are two main reasons for the significant increase 武汉桑拿洗浴会所 in the company’s 19-year performance: (1) Main business impact: The company’s main business grew steadily in the current period.First of all, the company continued to advance its high-end product strategy in this period, and further optimized the product sales structure, thereby increasing sales profits.In itself, the company launched operating cost management projects, which improved profitability by reducing costs and increasing efficiency.Finally, affected by the national tax and fee reduction policy, the company ‘s profitability has increased; (2) Non-operating profit and loss impact: According to the spirit of YufufaNo. 59 and YuyibaofaNo. 27, from 1 in 2019 Starting from January 1, employers will no longer pay large amounts of medical insurance contributions for retirees.The company’s plan change for the large amount of medical insurance in the defined benefit plan is recognized as the past service cost, and it is expected to increase the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2019 to 16,442.810,000 yuan, excluding the influence of this factor, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 44154 in one year.61?52334.270,000 yuan, +9 per year.30%?29.30%. Join forces with Carlsberg, the company can look forward to 2013, Chongqing Beer becomes a member of the Carlsberg Group.According to Carlsberg’s commitment to avoid potential competition at the time, Carlsberg will inject its domestic beer assets and businesses that have potential competition with Chongqing Beer into Chongqing Beer by December 2020.Carlsberg has developed well in Yunnan, Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Qinghai and other places, and its profitability is stronger than Chongqing Beer. Therefore, in the future, Carlsberg and the company will realize a strong alliance. The company’s profitability and market share are expected to further increase. Third, investment advice Regardless of the expected injection of Carlsberg’s assets, the company is expected to achieve operating income of 35 to 19-19.92 ppm / 37.72 ppm / 39.60 trillion, +3 for ten years.6% / 5.0% / 5.0%; net profit attributable to listed companies is 6.50 ppm / 5.3.9 billion / 5.0.94 million yuan, +60 for ten years.9% /-17.0% / + 10.2%, equivalent to 1.34 yuan / 1.11 yuan / 1.23 yuan, corresponding to PE is 37X / 44X / 40X.In 2020, the average expectation of comparable companies is estimated to be 43 times, and the company’s estimates are basically consistent with the average level of comparable companies. At the same time, considering that the company’s product structure upgrade continues to advance, the cost efficiency during the period and the Carlsberg asset injection commitment this year are likely to fall, it is expected that the company’s performanceThe growth rate will be faster than the average level of comparable companies, maintaining the “recommended” level. 4. Risk warning: the price of raw materials rises, new product promotion is less than expected, food safety risks, etc.