China Merchants Shekou (001979): Carrying over from 2019 to phased pressure, rebound in 2020 is expected

China Merchants Shekou (001979): Carrying over from 2019 to phased pressure, rebound in 2020 is expected

Forecasting 2019 annual profit growth of 7% We expect the company’s net 杭州桑拿 profit attributable to mothers to increase by 7% to 164 trillion in 2019, which is lower than the market consensus of 13 indicators.

Points to watch for In 2019, fewer carry-over projects and lower profit margins have resulted in a narrower profit growth rate. It is expected to return to two-digit growth in 2020.

The company has fewer projects that meet the carry-over conditions, and in 2018, it settled high-margin projects such as Shekou Shuangxi Garden, which resulted in a high profit margin base (1-3Q19 gross margin decreased by 7).

3 perfect to 25.

8%), we expect the company’s revenue to increase by 15% in 2019, and the gross profit margin and net profit attributable to mothers will fall to 25, respectively.

5% and 16.

1%, driving the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers to narrow to single digits.

Looking forward, the company has ample outstanding unsold value (3Q19 advance receipt budget and contract liabilities totaled 1347 trillion, which is 1 of CICC’s forecast of community business income in 2020.

2 times) and the profit margin is stable, and the profit growth rate is expected to rise to 15% in 2020?
20%.

Annual sales are stable and the short-term budget is expected to increase by more than 10%.

The company’s contract in January 2020 increased by 1% to 11.9 billion US dollars (corresponding to a decrease in sales area of 22% to 440,000 square meters), which is higher than the average level of leading real estate companies (Kerui TOP10 / 20 real estate company interval -11% /-12%).

We estimate that the company’s currently unsold soil storage is nearly 50 million square meters, corresponding to a value of nearly trillion, which can support the future 3?
4 years sales growth.

We expect the company to achieve a budget of $ 250 billion in 2020, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 13%.

Land acquisition in the first quarter is expected to decline significantly due to the impact of the epidemic.

The company obtained 4 projects in Dongguan, Xi’an and Nantong in January 2020, corresponding to land acquisition area / amount of 840,000 square meters / 8.1 billion (only one new project was added in the same period last year, and the land acquisition area was 5).

8 million flats).

We expect the company’s land acquisition intensity to decline under the impact of the New Crown epidemic in the first quarter. However, considering the subsequent cooling of the land market, the company’s cash flow is abundant, and the financial security is high.The quarterly land replenishment efforts promoted continuous improvement.

The financing side has prominent advantages and dividends are attractive.

The company’s average issue cost of credit bonds in 2019 is only 3.

47%, we forecast an average funding cost of about 4.

9%, low in the industry.

The company’s dividend ratio for 2016/2017/2018 is 41% / 40% / 40%, and we expect the company to maintain a dividend ratio of about 40%, corresponding to a 2019/2020 yield of 4.

8% / 5.

8% (average of the housing companies we cover is 4.

8% / 5.

7%).

都市夜网 Estimates and recommendations We maintain the company’s 2019/2020 profit forecast unchanged, with a date of 2021 profit forecast2.

83 yuan (before deducting perpetual debt interest).

The company is currently trading ahead of 7.

0/6.

1x 2020/2021 forecast P / E ratio.

Maintain Outperform Industry Rating and Target Price 21.

00 yuan, the target price corresponds to 8.

5/7.

4x 2020/2021 target price-earnings ratio and 22% upside.

The risk settlement progress was less than expected; the policy on the property market in the major cities was tightened beyond expectations; the duration of the new crown epidemic was longer than expected.