Ping An Bank (000001) Annual Report Commentary Report: What do you think of 2019 performance?
Event: On the evening of February 13, Ping An Bank disclosed its 2019 annual results: operating income of 1379.
580,000 yuan, +18.
2%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 281.
95 billion, a year-on-year increase of +13.
6%; expected average ROE is 11.
At the end of December 19, the scale of assets was 3.
94 trillion yuan, non-performing loan ratio1.
Revenue grows rapidly, and profit growth rate is large.
Revenue growth rate has continued to rise since 17 years, and revenue growth rate in 19 years was 18.
2%, staying high.
The profit growth rate in 19 was 15 compared with 15 in 3Q19.
5% percent to 13.
6%, but the growth rate of PPOP rose slightly to 19 earlier in 3Q19.
Earnings growth rate in the short term is to increase the provision of accrual efforts, 19Q4 single quarter provision for impairment losses 185.
300 million, up from 42 before.
ROE is in an ascending channel.
The 19-year ROE was 11.
30%, a decline of 0 every year.
The 19 shareholders are the one-time effects of the 19-year debt-to-equity swap.
If we exclude the impact of the conversion of convertible bonds, we estimate that the average ROE for the year 19 is 12.
0%, ROE is still in the rising channel.
The cost of deposits has fallen and the interest rate differential has remained high. The highlight is that the cost of deposits has begun to fall.
The single quarter deposit cost ratio in the fourth quarter of 19 was 2.
40%, a drop of 8BP from 19Q3, a significant downward trend.
We expect the decline in the cost of deposits to be related to the decline in the interest rate on structured deposits and the pressure on the proportion of high-cost deposits.
Single quarter interest calculation in the fourth quarter of 19 denied the cost rate2.
55%, a significant decrease in the previous 18Q3.
The decline in terrorism has benefited from the sharp fall in market interest rates, and the future will be mainly sediment.
Net interest margin remained high.
19-year net interest margin 2.
62%, unchanged from 3Q19, surpassed 27BP.
The short-term improvement of the net interest margin is due to: 1) the cost reduction caused by the large decline in market interest rates; 2) the return on assets supporting the return on assets slightly increased.
The quality of assets is obviously consolidated, and the pressure to reduce future asset quality is significantly consolidated.
Since the end of 2016, the overdue loan rate has increased from 4 at the end of 16 years.11% acknowledged 2 at the end of 19 years.
01%, concerned about the loan rate from 4.
11% return 2.
NPL ratio at the end of 19
65%, a decrease of 3BP from the previous 19Q3, and the proportion of loans overdue for more than 90 days decreased by 11BP from the 19Q3.
The bad accreditation standards are serious and severe, the asset quality is significantly consolidated, and the bad pressure will be relieved in the future.
After several years of disposal and digestion, the structure of public loans has been significantly optimized, and public debts have been basically eliminated.
However, retail non-performing loans have risen, and the provision for impairment losses on retail business has increased rapidly. The major types of retail loan non-performing ratios have increased in 19 years.
At the end of 19, the loan-to-loan ratio was 3.
01%, provision coverage ratio of 183.
Investment suggestion: The retail transformation continues to advance. The intelligent retail bank benchmark Ping An Bank converts debt to equity and significantly eases the pressure on core tier 1 capital.
The retail transition has continued to advance, and even high-yield consumer loans increased in 19 years, but the credit card business has developed better and the private banking business has made a qualitative leap.
Relying on the group and financial technology, Ping An Bank is gradually becoming the benchmark for intelligent retail banking.
As a new benchmark for retail banks, we continue to use Ping An Bank as the main medium- and long-term benchmark.
Maintain it at 1.
Three times the 20-year PB target estimate, corresponding to 20.
17 yuan / share.
Maintain overweight rating.
Risk Warning: The quality of retail loan assets 杭州桑拿 deteriorates significantly, and retail conversions exceed expectations.